More than 500 million barrels of crude and condensate have already been knocked out of the global market
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Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was open following a ceasefire accord agreed in Lebanon, while the US President Donald Trump said he believed a deal to end the war would come “soon”, though the timing remains unclear.
However, nearly 50 days into the Iran conflict, more than 500 million barrels of crude and condensate have already been knocked out of the global market, according to analysts and Reuters calculations, marking the largest energy supply disruption in modern history. With crude prices averaging around $100 a barrel, the lost output is estimated at roughly $50 billion.
500 mn barrels, in perspective
- 10 weeks of global aviation demand
- 11 days of no road transport worldwide
- 5 days of total global oil demand
- 1 month of US, Europe oil consumption
- 4 months of global shipping fuel use
- 6 years of US military fuel usage
The economic hit
- 8 mn barrels per day (bpd) lost in March from Gulf Arab producers, nearly matching the combined output of Exxon Mobil and Chevron
- 19.6 million to 4.1 mn barrels drop in jet fuel exports from February to March-April
- Roughly equals to 1% of Germany’s GDP
- 12 mn bpd, the scale of production outages since late March
- 45 mn barrels, the drawdown in global onshore crude inventories in April
- 4-5 months, the time heavy crude fields in Kuwait and Iraq may take to stabilise.
- Restoration of key infra, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, could require several years to function at full refining capacity
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