India was ahead of other Asian buyers by a week in procuring Russian oil, and refiners were told to pick up as much Russian oil as possible. But the country still faces a shortfall of 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil for March, compared to February, after purchases from West Asia fell off a cliff. 

India is poised to be the biggest beneficiary of the over 110 million barrels of Russian oil parked in tankers and floating on high seas – equivalent to India’s consumption needs of close to three weeks – after China, Japan and South Korea, the biggest competitors for this oil, expressed reservations over Washington’s conditions for going ahead with purchases, according to industry officials and shipping data. The war in West Asia has entered the 16th day. 

Russian supplies may help India meet another 30 days of requirement, insulating its refineries and retail outlets from any shortage of liquid transport fuels and obviating the need for rationing, two senior industry officials told Business Standard. “We are completely covered for crude oil supplies until mid-April”, beyond which India will again need to seek Washington’s nod for purchase of additional crude oil from Russia, India’s biggest oil source, the officials said. Besides ensuring India’s retail outlets do not run dry of diesel and petrol, uninterrupted flows of imported oil sustain the level of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which is partly produced by processing oil in refineries. 

While the level of crude oil stock looks comfortable, according to refining officials, India’s overall crude oil imports this month are 14 per cent lower than February – despite Russian shipments doubling over last month. Indian refiners typically run their facilities at full throughput in the last quarter of a financial year to show good annual results, said a Mumbai-based analyst who did not wish to be named. 

Russian oil shipments surged in the week of March 9 to 2.1 million bpd from 1.18 million bpd a week earlier, the highest since the week of November 10, 2025, according to industry data firm Kpler. 

But the country still faces a shortfall of 700,000 bpd of crude oil for March compared to February after purchases from West Asian producers plummeted amid the Irael-US-Iran war. In the week of March 2, West Asian producers led by Saudi Arabia and Iraq supplied around 2 million bpd of crude oil to India, most shipped in February, along with 1.2 million bpd of Russian oil. In the week of March 9, Russian shipments doubled to 2.1 million bpd, while West Asian supplies crashed to 230,000 bpd, Kpler data showed. 

On March 13, the US offered all countries a one-month waiver on sale, purchase and delivery of crude oil or petroleum products of Russian Federation origin, from sanctioned and non-sanctioned producers, loaded on any vessel, including sanctioned vessels, on or before March 12 and through April 11. A week before this order, the US had allowed India to buy additional volumes under General Licence 133, which required the volumes to have been loaded as on March 5 and discharged by April 4 — with both orders only permitting purchase of floating cargoes and effectively blocking new loadings from Russian ports. 

Russian crude oil in transit and in floating storage totalled between 120 and 130 million barrels, according to market intelligence company Vortexa and Kpler. 

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India bought a lot of cargoes after the Washington order relaxing sanctions, said Sumit Ritolia, an analyst at Kpler in Delhi. Around 25 million barrels were available in the Arabian sea, Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal, a short haul from Indian ports, but they were fast depleting, he added. India has already secured 13 million barrels last week, twice as much as in the week of February 23. 

Premiums on Russian barrels may rise now that other Asian buyers have shown interest, a senior Indian trader said. India last week booked Russian oil at a premium of $3-5 to Dated Brent on a delivered basis, compared to discounts of $10-12 per barrel on medium, sour Urals grade in January. 

But China, Japan and South Korea are exercising caution, despite Washington allowing sanctioned tankers to transport cargoes from sanctioned producers. Typically, sanctioned oil is purchased by Chinese independent refiners, referred to as teapots, while large state-run Chinese oil companies, with global operations and exposure to the US dollar, avoiding Russian cargoes. 

Japanese and South Korean refiners have issues buying Russian oil due to payment concerns. Banks in Japan and Korea take more than 30 days to process credit lines for Russia and Russia-linked counterparties, which would be longer than the 30 days of sanction waiver granted by the US, said UK-based market information provider Energy Intelligence. 

Hormuz blockade 

A senior oil ministry official said at a briefing last week that about 70 per cent of India’s oil was coming from routes outside the Hormuz. Kpler data showed that 53 per cent of India’s crude volumes came via the Strait of Hormuz in February. March volumes via the strait averaged 32 per cent in the first half of March amid lower imports. 

“Shipping activity suggests most shipowners remain reluctant to transit the Strait of Hormuz, with only a handful of vessels entering or leaving the Gulf in recent days,’’ said Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst, at Kpler.

Russia, Kazakhstan, and Brazil cannot offset Gulf oil losses amid Hormuz insurance crisis, said Anas Alhajji, a global energy expert, in a note. The weekly supply (exports) of crude oil from Russia, including Kazakh exports from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal and Brazil, has declined in recent months with no end in sight, he added. 

Long-voyage cargoes are 30-50 days away. Alternative export routes via Fujairah and Yanbu are still leaving effective West Asian exports at only about one-third of the normal level. 

The US has not loaded any cargoes for India this month, according to ship-tracking data. Brazil loaded only around 237,000 bpd in March, which takes 45-50 days to reach India, and two Venezuelan cargoes of dirty, acidic Merey, and a similar Colombian-grade Castilla, have set sail for India. 

India’s continued imports of Russian crude barrels remain a key factor in maintaining stability amid the recent tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, said Sergey Gor, US ambassador to India. “Global spare capacity is mostly concentrated in this region, so it is absolutely critical that shipping resumes through the Strait of Hormuz,” he noted. 

Delays in reopening the Strait of Hormuz may send oil prices, already over $100 a barrel, 40 per cent higher than those before the start of the war, even higher this week. “Oil has gathered all the catalysts it needs for a perfect storm to propel prices to the next level,” Xu said. “Asian refiners are expected to step up purchases of long-haul cargoes from the Atlantic Basin as no quick reopening of Strait of Hormuz traffic appears in sight.”