A weak rupee is not a strategy, it is a signal

Clipped from: https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/a-weak-rupee-is-not-a-strategy-it-is-a-signal/article70506224.ece

It reflects is an economy still reliant on the world for what it consumes and insufficiently integrated into the world through what it produces

The standard defence of rupee depreciation is that a weaker currency boosts exports | Photo Credit: iStockphoto

As the rupee weakens, public debate once again oscillates between panic and celebration. But exchange rates are neither trophies nor tragedies. They are signals. In India’s case, rupee depreciation is exposing a deeper structural reality: an economy still heavily dependent on imports for essential goods and insufficiently integrated into global production through exports.

The rupee slipping past ₹90 against the US dollar has revived familiar arguments. Some view it as a warning sign, others dismiss it as a global, dollar-driven phenomenon, and a few frame it as an export advantage. Yet this debate misses the central point. The rupee is not weak merely because of sentiment or speculation. It is weak because it reflects the underlying structure of the Indian economy. Exchange rates do not create economic reality; they reveal it. Every currency movement tells a story about what an economy produces, what it imports, and where its vulnerabilities lie.

In India’s case, that story is uncomfortable. The country remains heavily reliant on imported essentials such as crude oil, edible oils, fertilizers, pulses, pharmaceutical intermediates and industrial machinery. These are not discretionary imports that can be postponed or easily substituted. They are fundamental to food security, energy supply and production. When the rupee depreciates, the cost of these imports rises immediately, transmitting inflation into households and businesses long before any export gains can materialise.

The real cost of rupee depreciation is best understood not on currency charts, but on the food plate. Essential food imports, such as pulses, reveal how exchange rate movements translate directly into inflationary pressure for Indian households. Pulses are a dietary staple and the primary source of protein for a large share of Indian households, making these imports economically unavoidable. A weaker rupee, therefore, has a direct bearing on food prices and household welfare.

Impact on pulses import bill

The Table illustrates the impact of exchange rate movements on India’s pulse import bill, independent of changes in global prices or import volumes. In 2024, pulse imports worth $5.14 billion translated into a rupee outlay of ₹30,840 crore at an exchange rate of ₹60 per dollar. At ₹90 per dollar, the same imports cost ₹46,261 crore, implying an additional burden of ₹15,420 crore without any change in quantities or international prices. Similar patterns are visible across the decade. In 2023 alone, the exchange rate effect added more than ₹9,200 crore to the import bill. These figures demonstrate that for essential food commodities, rupee depreciation functions as a direct inflationary channel, eroding household purchasing power even in the absence of external supply shocks.

This is why rupee depreciation in India behaves less like a competitiveness tool and more like a regressive tax. Unlike export-surplus economies, India’s import basket is dominated by necessities rather than discretionary consumption. A weaker currency, therefore, raises the cost of fuel, transport, food and medicines almost mechanically. For low-income households, whose spending is concentrated on essentials, the loss of purchasing power is immediate. For salaried middle-class families, incomes remain fixed while expenses steadily rise, from groceries and commuting to healthcare and education. Depreciation does not arrive as a sudden shock; it accumulates as a gradual erosion of real income.

The standard defence of rupee depreciation is that a weaker currency boosts exports. In theory, this is correct. In practice, its effectiveness depends critically on the export structure. India’s manufacturing sector remains heavily dependent on imported inputs. Electronic components, chemicals, metals, active pharmaceutical ingredients and capital machinery are largely sourced from abroad. When the rupee weakens, the cost of these inputs rises alongside export revenues. For many firms, particularly MSMEs, higher input costs offset any price advantage gained from depreciation. Limited pricing power and inadequate access to currency-hedging instruments further constrain their ability to benefit. Under such conditions, rupee depreciation compresses margins rather than expanding output, making export-led growth an unreliable outcome.

Comparison with China

This structural constraint also explains why invoking comparisons with economies such as China obscures more than it clarifies. China commands far larger shares of global exports and operates deep domestic value chains with relatively low import content. Their currencies can weaken without igniting domestic inflation because production systems are internally anchored and export earnings generate stable foreign exchange inflows. India, with a modest global export share and shallow manufacturing depth, does not enjoy this buffer. Identical exchange rate movements therefore produce structurally divergent outcomes, reflecting differences in the depth of exports and domestic value chains.

None of this implies that currency depreciation is inherently undesirable. It becomes manageable, and sometimes beneficial, when inflation is anchored, exports have high domestic value addition, import dependence in essentials is limited, and the external account is financed by stable capital flows rather than volatile money. These conditions, however, must be earned through sustained structural transformation. India has not yet built an economy where depreciation is painless. Until domestic production capacity deepens, reliance on imported essentials declines, export ecosystems strengthen and inflation expectations remain firmly anchored, the rupee will continue to transmit stress rather than opportunity.

The rupee is not sending a mysterious signal. It is holding up a mirror. What it reflects is an economy still reliant on the world for what it consumes and insufficiently integrated into the world through what it produces. A nation does not adopt a weak currency as a strategy when it depends on global markets for essentials; it builds the economic capacity to withstand one.

The writer is a senior research fellow and global trade educator

Published on January 13, 2026