More than a fortnight after the coronavirus claimed its initial victim in China, a 61-year-old regular customer at the market in Wuhan — the epicentre of the pandemic — India reported its first case of infection on January 30 in Kerala’s Thrissur district.
“I didn’t think I was infected. In fact, I was pretty cool at that time,” the 20-year-old Wuhan University medical student, India’s first coronavirus patient, told a magazine in an interview in late February.
The third-year student had taken a China Eastern Airlines flight from Wuhan to Kolkata via Kunming before hopping onto an IndiGo flight that landed her in Cochin. A few days later, when she experienced a sore throat, the medical student sought professional help suspecting coronavirus infection.
On January 31, she was admitted to the government medical college, Thrissur. And the country’s worst fear had come true: the deadly pathogen had finally found its way to our doorsteps, all the way from China.
Yet, the government for some strange reason didn’t act fast in curbing the spread of infection through air traffic until March 21 by banning all international flights. But by then, the damage was done. Around 300 overseas flights landed in India everyday during this one-month period. Worse, around 200 flights of Indian airliners from major infected hubs such as China, Italy, Iran, Singapore, Bangkok, London, Dubai, and New York landed in India.
At this rate, aircraft from around the world were landing in the country, carrying hundreds or probably thousands of potentially infected cases every day. Some airlines such as Emirates fly big planes like Boeing 777 and Airbus A380 to India that can handle 300-500 passengers in one go while many others such as FlyDubai use Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 that have around 180 seats. Even at a conservative estimate of an average 225 passengers per flight, it means around 32 lakh people may have flown into the country between February 21 and March 21, the peak of the outbreak globally.
So far, 3,300 detected infections and 79 deaths have been reported in India as the virus has spread to 29 states, while 266 have been discharged or cured so far. At 500, Delhi has the most number of infected cases followed by Maharashtra (490), Tamil Nadu (485), Kerala (306), Telangana (269), Uttar Pradesh (227), and Rajasthan (200).
Given its two-week incubation period, even if a small percentage of the 32 lakh people who flew in during the one month are tested positive, it could pose serious challenges to an already strained healthcare infrastructure. The government has conceded that there were gaps in screening people and some Indian passengers have reportedly cleared the temperature screening by taking paracetamol tablets.
At this point, there may be no conclusive method to pinpoint the cities or regions that are likely to be the worst infected by the pandemic, but we can nevertheless use the available air-traffic data to map potentially developing red zones in the country. While major Indian metros witnessed steady traffic, new direct flights from South East Asian countries over the past few years to state capitals such as Jaipur and tourist destinations such as Varanasi, Gaya, Amritsar, etc, have made smaller towns also vulnerable.
With pilots, engineers, check-in agents, duty-free shop staff, and security personnel at airports testing Covid-19 positive and some passengers giving the authorities a slip to avoid quarantine, shutting down air traffic was the only solution.
The deadly microbe that first surfaced in Wuhan in China’s Hubei province is on a rampage with about one-third of the world now under some kind of lockdown.
Back home, all domestic and international flights are grounded. However, there is hope among industry participants that some flights may be allowed after April 14 when the lockdown ends.
As we have reported earlier, most airline companies are bleeding, and tiding over this crisis is not going to be easy with time ticking away. But they know that defeating the coronavirus is the topmost priority at the moment.
Now, the country’s first coronavirus patient is back on her feet — completely cured — and more resolute than ever in her vow to fight diseases.
“My brother is also studying there,” she says, adding she can’t wait to be back in the campus in Wuhan once things settle down. “I will go back after all this gets over. I am in the third year… three more years [to become a doctor].”
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