In September 2026, there was a collective sigh of relief that El Nino had not impacted the area sown under kharif crops. However, it is now apparent that erratic rainfall has hurt yields for crops such as tur. It has been estimated that the tur output this kharif could be as low as 20-25 lakh tonnes, less than half of the domestic consumption requirement of 40-45 lakh tonnes.
Unlike paddy, maize or gram where kharif setbacks can be made up in the post-monsoon or rabi seasons, tur is an exclusively kharif crop. Once the kharif harvest is exhausted in February or so, India will be entirely dependent on tur imports until December 2027. The shortfall this year is attributed to El Nino, but tur output has charted an erratic path for five years now — peaking at over 43 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 and plunging to 33-36 lakh tonnes in the next three years. To be sure, the government has taken steps to address the current shortfall. In March 2026, an agreement with Myanmar for import of tur along with other pulses was extended by five years. Duty-free and quota-free tur imports allowed until March 2026 have been extended until March 2027. Talks are on to diversify origins beyond Myanmar and Africa to Australia. However, all of these are essentially short-term fixes.
The challenges for tur production seem to be threefold. One, while other pulses are grown across regions, the tur crop remains geographically concentrated. Just two States, Maharashtra and Karnataka, account for nearly 70 per cent of domestic tur output while the pulse is consumed nation-wide. Logistical and storage challenges result in crop losses, with farmers reaping only a fraction of the retail price. Two, the tur crop is also grown in rainfed regions, making it vulnerable to regional disparities in monsoon rains. Unlike short-duration gram or moong which are inter-cropped with kharif and rabi staples, tur requires a 160-180-day crop cycle. Choosing tur over other crops thus impairs the farmer’s ability to diversify his income. Three, though the Centre has steadily raised the Minimum Support Price for tur, public procurement efforts run via NAFED and National Cooperative Consumers Federation have fallen short of targets and failed to arrest price volatility. Often buffer stock releases and duty-free imports swamp the market and depress realisations post-harvest, disincentivising farmers from expanding their acreage the next season.
