Unless the geopolitical situation worsens considerably, chances of a soft landing are higher in India than in the US
The inflation rate needs to fall. But analysts seem to be having second thoughts about the degree of monetary tightening that needs to happen. That is the cause for optimism about growth.
The consumer price index inflation rate touched 7.9 per cent in April followed by 7 per cent in May. In June 2022, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised its inflation forecast for 2022-23 to 6.7 per cent. There was panic amongst market analysts.
Some analysts saw the repo rate going up to as much as 6.25 per cent in 2022-23 over the starting point of 4 per cent.
There seems to have been a rethink since. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor Michael Patra’s well-argued address on June 22 to the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry has had a sobering effect on the markets.
After the address, the yield on the 10-year government bond fell by 18 basis points. That says something about the credibility of RBI’s pronouncements on monetary policy.
Dr Patra made three important points. First, he indicated that we might expect inflation to fall back into the tolerance band of 2-6 per cent by the fourth quarter of 2022-23. Second, Dr Patra seemed hopeful that “monetary policy actions in India will be more moderate than elsewhere in the world”.
he third point is potentially more controversial. Dr Patra indicated that inflation may exceed 6 per cent for three successive quarters, which would be a breach of the MPC’s mandate. However, if India’s gross domestic product (GDP) can grow at 6-7 per cent in this year and the next, “the RBI will have fulfilled its mandate of prioritising price stability while being mindful of growth.”
Read together, the second and third points
could be interpreted to mean that interest rate hikes hereafter would not be so drastic as to cause GDP growth to fall below 6 per cent. This approach may result in a breach in the accountability mandate of the MPC. So be it, Dr Patra seemed to suggest.
Some are outraged. How could the MPC countenance such a breach? Dr Patra has a plausible response: These are “extraordinary times”. Nobody can disagree. Having just emerged from successive waves of the pandemic, the world economy is facing new supply constraints. The last thing we need now is that, in reining in demand, we create supply constraints within the Indian economy as well. The critical issue in managing inflation is not so much the precise level of inflation as the predictability of it. The RBI must not give guidance that misleads the market. That is clearly not the case here.
So far, so smooth. The spoiler could be the actions of the US Federal Reserve. The Fed has of late taken a “we will do whatever it takes” approach to fighting inflation. Market analysts feel the Fed could hike interest rates by a further 120-150 basis points in the months ahead. If the RBI were to match that, the repo rate could rise to as much as 6.4 per cent. That would render a soft landing difficult for the Indian economy.
The best outcome would be that the Fed does not hike the policy rate as much as feared. The other possibility is that the RBI does not have to match the Fed’s rate hikes. The price to be paid is a further flight of portfolio funds and a depreciation in the rupee. We can live with such a depreciation. Despite the fall in the exchange rate of the rupee with respect to the dollar, the 40-currency real effective exchange of the rupee has remained virtually unchanged in May 2022 compared to May 2021.
Dr Patra is right. When it comes to a soft landing, India is better placed than the US and many European economies. Even at May’s inflation rate of 7 per cent, inflation in India is 2.5 percentage points above the average for the previous five years. In the US, the difference is about 5.5 percentage points. Monetary tightening required is greater in the US.
Secondly, as the latest annual report of the Bank of International Settlements notes, the Phillips curve, which gives the trade-off between inflation and unemployment, has turned flat in the US in recent years. The flatter the Phillips curve, the greater is the monetary tightening required to produce a given fall in the inflation rate. In India, the Phillips curve seems to have acquired its normal shape after having been relatively flat for six years starting 2014. (RBI Bulletin, November 2021).
Dr Patra’s address, which echoed many points the RBI governor had made earlier, may prove to have been a turning point in shaping the inflation trajectory in the months ahead.
Banking sector in good shape
The health of the banking sector is yet another cause for optimism about the economic outlook. The latest Financial Stability Report of RBI points to several indicators of improvement.
The gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) were at a six-year low of 5.9 per cent of advances in March 2022. They are expected to fall further to 5.2 per cent in March 2023. Capital adequacy in the banking system averages 16.7 per cent, a full 5.2 percentage points above the regulatory minimum. Provision coverage ratio is at a healthy 71 per cent. Annual credit growth in June 2022 was 13.1 per cent, a rate last recorded in March 2019. India’s banking system can be said to have emerged from a banking crisis that lasted nearly a decade.
If the projected NPA level is correct, regulatory forbearance during Covid has paid off. It hasn’t ended up postponing the day of reckoning, as critics had feared.
Unless the geopolitical situation worsens considerably, the Indian economy should manage growth of 6.5-7 per cent in 2022-23 while inflation falls gradually to within the tolerance band. In today’s troubled environment, that would be a considerable achievement. It would show that the Indian economy is stronger today than in earlier crises and we are getting better at macroeconomic firstname.lastname@example.org