Economists see strong GDP rebound in 2021 – The Economic Times

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DBS Bank projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 7.6% in 2021, among the fastest in the region after a 7.4% contraction in 2020.

New Delhi: India’s economy could rebound to 7.6-9.2% growth in the new calendar year, with Covid vaccinations helping to boost business activity, increased capital expenditure on infrastructure and an improvement in consumption, independent economists surveyed by ET said. The improvement in business sentiment could remain uneven over the next several quarters, they said.

Barclays has pegged a 9.2% year-on-year growth in India’s GDP for calendar year 2021.

“After a sharp fall in GDP growth in 2020, we expect a reasonably sharp bounce back in 2021, as India will likely go back to pre-Covid GDP levels by H2 2021,” said Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist, Barclays.


Nomura, Goldman Project High Growth
DBS Bank projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 7.6% in 2021, among the fastest in the region after a 7.4% contraction in 2020.

“Our baseline assumption is for consumption to improve as businesses come back online resulting in a lift to income and employment prospects, as well as a larger shift from unorganised to organised sector, with any acceleration in vaccine availability to be an additional tailwind,” said Radhika Rao, senior vice president and economist, DBS Group Research.

Japanese financial services firm Nomura has projected India to be the fastest-growing Asian economy in 2021, with an estimate of 9.9% GDP growth, adding that the near-term risks of a resurgent pandemic are unlikely to derail growth. In its global economic analysis report, V(accine)-Shaped Recovery, investment bank Goldman Sachs reiterated its projections for India’s GDP growth for 2021 at 10%, the highest among major economies around the world. It expects India’s GDP to have shrunk almost 9% in calendar year 2020.

India suffered its deepest contraction on record in the current fiscal year. In the September quarter of FY21, India’s GDP contracted 7.5% after a historic 23.9% decline in the June quarter.

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