India is structurally diverse, and all states need not unlock in the same manner or at the same rate. However, there must be some agreement on the key metrics to be relied upon, and this should be shared transparently.
Like in now almost half of the world, the lockdown in India is a powerful weapon to contain the spread of Covid-19 in the second most populous nation. Equally important and timely is the prime ministerial nudge to begin the conversation over the process of unlocking India. The lockdown was necessarily precipitate and all bases could not be covered. But now there is time to think, to deliberate and to involve all stakeholders, especially the state governments. In fact, since public commitment is essential in a war — and this is an extraordinary world war in which all nations are on the same side — taking the public into confidence would be profitable. In this pandemic, human beings are vectors, and their cooperation would determine outcomes.
In his meeting with chief ministers on Thursday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi indicated a phased unlocking and asked states to work out the details. Several options are on the table, ranging from social distancing until Diwali, through lockdowns in pockets, to general lockdowns in response to future surges. While the government may not know its own mind at present — indeed, responses must evolve according to fresh information — it would be useful to understand what the phases consist of, and by what metrics they would be triggered: A fall in the death rate, or in the rate of fresh infections, or the total burden of disease, or the extent of hotspots? A model developed by the Indian Council of Medical Research reported in this newspaper suggests that an aggressive test-and-quarantine push could bring down the epidemic peak and mortality by 28 per cent and 21 per cent from current projections. But when would the logistics for such a push be available? By all accounts, the Centre has rightly placed faith in the states and their apparatus at the district level, but the conversation between the Centre and the states could be more symmetric, and their medical and logistical resources brought more fully on board in the discussions.
States like Kerala, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal have each brought a special strategy to bear on aspects of the containment exercise. India is structurally diverse, and all states need not unlock in the same manner or at the same rate. However, there must be some agreement on the key metrics to be relied upon, and this should be shared transparently. For now, there are only two certainties — that the virus will go away someday, and that the lockdown is not for ever. Both planners and the people need more certainties so that people’s lives, and the nation, can move forward in a predictable manner. That’s not easy, so the more heads that come together, the better.
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