Statsguru: Record tax filings indicate potential growth challenges ahead

https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/statsguru-record-tax-filings-indicate-potential-growth-challenges-ahead-124010700474_1.html

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Gross total income has gone up 229 per cent since AY13 and was nearing Rs 70 trillion as of AY22. Tax payable was nearing Rs 10 trillion

tax growth

Illustration: Binay Sinha

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New records in tax filing show signs of headwinds to growth going forward. The government announced that tax filing for the assessment year 2022-23 (AY24) had touched a record figure of 81.8 million as of December. This is higher than the 75.2 million seen in the previous year (chart 1).

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Gross total income has gone up 229 per cent since AY13 and was nearing Rs 70 trillion as of AY22. Tax payable was nearing Rs 10 trillion (chart 2).

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The sub-components of gross total income show that long-term and short-term capital gains grew the fastest. Long-term capital gains grew at a compound annual rate of 30.1 per cent over the last five years, while short-term capital gains went up by 26.7 per cent. Gross total income grew at 12.6 per cent (chart 3).

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Capital gains refers to gains from holding an asset like property, gold, or stocks over a period of time. The stock market has boomed since the pandemic and a record number of investor accounts were opened. Individuals accounted for a third of the long-term and short-term capital gains in the latest year. An analysis of past return data shows that they also drove over 90 per cent increase in returns filed (chart 4).

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Interestingly, many individuals filing tax returns declare zero tax liability. They accounted for two-thirds of the total individual returns filed in the latest year for which data is available (chart 5).

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Growth in returns filed has fallen to single digit. Raising income levels of individuals across states may be a challenge to pushing growth beyond 9 per cent seen in the latest year. Most taxpayers are based in a few developed states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Gujarat. The top seven states account for over 60 per cent of the non-zero returns filed (chart 6).

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