No proof required: MPC — you are not in D-School any more श्री सुरजित भल्ला —सविस्तर माहितीसाठी इंडियन एक्सप्रेस मधील बातमी वाचावी.

The MPC meets on June 6 and 7, their fifth meeting to decide the course of monetary policy and exchange rates. Over its last four meetings, the MPC has flip-flopped on various issues of policy and inference; this meeting is a chance for the MPC to redeem itself.
Consider this. At its first demonetisation meeting on December 7, the MPC concluded that demonetisation was temporary and so, it should look through its effects on dampening inflation and growth. It expected inflation and GDP growth to hustle up in a “V-shaped” pattern. The reality — GDP growth has been flat at 7 per cent, inflation has followed just the first half of the V. The MPC’s post-demonetisation short-term three-month forward forecast for March 2017 was 5 per cent with an upside bias. Actual March 2017 CPI inflation — a low 3.5 per cent! Actual April CPI inflation — 3 per cent. I have searched far and wide but not found any central bank, or even an amateur economist, with such a large forecast error for a three-month projection. These forecast errors are liable to get worse.

via No proof required: MPC — you are not in D-School any more | The Indian Express

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s